US Airlines May Shrink To Save Money

A sense of where airlines are heading has emerged in recent days. Northwest, which slashed operations in bankruptcy, may shrink the airline even more if fuel prices erode travel demand, the carrier's chief executive said. In a recorded message to employees on Sunday, Doug Steenland did not specify what steps Northwest might take or how much smaller the airline might get, but he cautioned that higher fuel costs can lead to fewer passengers. Oil prices, directly related to jet fuel costs, notched a record high of $111.80 in New York on Monday before slipping to near $105 in afternoon trading. Although Northwest and other airlines have reported operating more flights and fuller planes at higher fares, Steenland said the industry "as a whole" appears headed back into some "very tough times."

US Airways chief executive Doug Parker said last month that the industry was "a mess." Airlines are looking closely at regional jet operations, especially the smallest jets that more and more carriers are flying at a loss. Delta Air Lines has cut some of these flights where operations are limited and may chop again. "We'll make reductions when necessary," Delta chief executive Richard Anderson said in a similar message to employees. "We're going to manage prudently through this spike in fuel prices." Today Delta announced that it would offer severance packages to 30,000 workers as a way to cut expenses.

The fuel price spike coupled with a steadily weakening US economy has stalled the industry's modest recovery from the 2001-06 downturn. As a result, airlines have been pummeled on Wall Street with steep declines in their share prices.  Northwest shares, which have lost two thirds of their value since the company emerged from bankruptcy in May, fell 6.2 percent on Monday to $8.92. Delta shares, which have lost more than half their value since emerging from bankruptcy last April, traded down 3.9 percent to $9.23 on Monday. United Airlines fell 7.8 percent; US Airways fell 10.1 percent; American Airlines fell 3.2 percent and Southwest Airlines ended just 0.6 percent lower. 

The previous downturn resulted in bankruptcies and unprecedented out-of-court restructurings. Carriers appear leaner and in better shape this time to weather the oncoming turbulence, experts say. For example, Northwest, Delta, United and US Airways, while in bankruptcy, dumped many older, inefficient planes and reworked lease agreements for aircraft they are flying now. Their labor expenses are lower, as are a host of other operating costs.

Other carriers also have healthy cash balances for now. United ended 2007, according to its most recent available regulatory filing, with unrestricted cash and short-term investments of $3.6 billion.  American had $5 billion in cash and short-term investments, including a restricted balance of $428 million.  Delta ended the year with $3.8 billion in unrestricted liquidity, including  $1 billion in revolving credit. Southwest, the biggest airline by market capitalization at $8.5 billion, reported $2.8 billion in cash and short-term investments. The company also had an unsecured revolving credit line of $600 million.

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